The NRL is officially broken and only a national draft can piece it back together.
Season 2024 has come and gone and with it came a compliment of great surprises, twists and turns that enraptured fans and kept all eyes glued to the screen to see who would hoist the Provan-Summons trophy on the first Sunday in October.
But with the season now in the rear mirror, and reflecting on the trends and events that unfolded, did it match a script that seems a little tired and all too familiar?
For the fourth time in as many years, the Penrith Panthers claimed premiership glory, a feat never before achieved in the modern era, and one which is indicative of the troubling state of competitiveness and parity that is becoming more and more obvious with each passing season.
A State of Disrepair
To say premiership glory in the NRL is a ‘closed shop’ is the understatement of the century.
To win the grand final it’s become a requirement that teams must finish within the top four.
Indeed, no team has won the premiership from lower than fourth in almost 30 years, that being the 1995 Canterbury Bulldogs in fifth.
The Panthers hold aloft the Provan-Summons Trophy. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Although this isn’t a phenomenon unique to rugby league, what is, is the consolidation and monopolisation of three of those coveted spots.
Combined, the Penrith Panthers, Melbourne Storm and Sydney Roosters have won each of the last eight premierships, with all three teams occupying a top-four position in at least five of those eight seasons.
While the Panthers’ successes may be considered a unique moment in history, it’s clear now more than ever that the NRL has become a three-horse race in a field of 17, and that gap doesn’t appear to be closing any time soon.
So what does this mean for the rest of the competition? With the state of the current game, teams like Wests Tigers are left to languish at the bottom of the premiership table with no avenue of advancement.
As written in the Financial Review, in October, the Penrith Panthers are worth more than two and a half times the Tigers.
This financial disparity would be inextricably linked to better academies, facilities and financial muscle in free agency that would have strong correlative effects on premiership pedigree.
For the competition’s perennial strugglers, there is no way they can compete in all facets of the game with the league’s top clubs.
The equalisation is essential in preventing the rest of the competition from becoming feeder clubs themselves.
Drafting a promising future
If there is one thing that all the most competitive sports leagues in the world share, it’s a national draft.
The AFL, NFL, NBA and NHL all boast sports leagues that maintain a high level of parity where every season the premiership is truly up for grabs.
Herbie Farnworth. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
The concept of a national draft is simple, every year the best young talent around the country are placed in a pool where teams select who they hope will be the future stars of the next generation.
It balances out the talent disparities between top and bottom teams, alleviating the consolidatory impact that financials or exclusive academies might otherwise impose on the competition.
Consider GWS in the AFL. The newest expansion club in the league and one situated in a rugby league heartland, the Giants should have no right being up amongst the powerhouse Victorian sides every year competing for a flag.
But by leveraging the talent pool of a national draft over the last decade, they’ve built a competitive playing list that would otherwise be unachievable in an NRL context.
By all club metrics – attendance, memberships, venue, regional fan and player demographics – the Giants are one of the weakest clubs in the sport and yet they’ve already appeared in seven finals series and one grand final in their 13-year history.
It is time for the NRL to be courageous, early premiership predictions for 2025 once again have the Panthers as favourites to win it all.
Rugby league is at a crisis point and it must now evolve or die.
