One of the few good things about playing on Thursday Night Football is that you don’t have time to dwell. This was especially true in the matchup against the Patriots in 2022, just 4 days after a 40-3 home loss to the Cowboys. Although the Vikings didn’t lose by 37 this time, they still have a short time to shake a 31-29 loss to the Lions.
The problem with this TNF game is that it’s an away game in Los Angeles. The travel would be tiring with a full week of rest and preparation, and it’s even worse with only four days for that. Still, this team is in a prime position to get back in the winning column against a Rams team dealing with a lot of problems.
A team that ‒ since 2017 ‒ has been known for their offense has scored three touchdowns in a game only once this season. The defense is struggling mightily after losing their anchor in future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Donald, giving up at least 24 points in each game. Struck again with the injury bug, the Rams ‒ who entered the season with playoff aspirations ‒ have just two wins in 2024.
Matthew Stafford is having arguably his worst start to a season, with his yards per game set to be his worst when playing a full season. He’s throwing touchdowns on only 1.5% of his passes (which would be a career low), and his TD/INT ratio would be his worst since his rookie season in 2009.
Still, this won’t be an easy game. Every time you face a team with a good coaching staff, it’s a tough matchup, and Sean McVay is still one of the best HCs in the NFL. Although they lost Puka Nacua in the first game and Cooper Kupp just one week after, the Rams have kept it close. Their only loss by more than six points came against the Cardinals in Week 2 (41-10), and they produced a great comeback win against the 49ers one week after that.
If the Vikings can stop getting in their own way with penalties (season low is five flags in a game) and turnovers (only one game without giving the ball away), they should beat the Rams. If they can’t overcome the self-inflicted wounds and the fatigue of a physical game against the Lions, things can get ugly in L.A.
But, of course, we have some good matchups in this game as well.
Vikings’ Front Seven vs. Rams’ Offensive Line
The Vikings had one of the best run defenses in the league before the Lions game. Even though Jahmyr Gibbs managed to get big carries, the unit still is amongst the league’s best. The Rams haven’t been able to get many yards per carry (3.8 from their leading rusher), but their recent change to a more power-running scheme is paying dividends, with Kyren Williams leading the league in TDs.
Through the air, things are not that good. Stafford’s 26.5 pressure percentage would be his worst since 2018. This is a combination of a lot of injuries through the offensive line and wide receiver rooms. Kupp’s return will give the QB at least one trusted target, but if his line can’t protect him, it won’t matter having Kupp back. Even though they aren’t sacking the QB as much as in the first few games, the Vikings are still top five in sacks and QB hits and lead the league in pressures.
Stephon Gilmore vs. Cooper Kupp
As mentioned, Kupp will play in his first game since suffering an ankle injury in Week 2. The 2021 Offensive Player of The Year hasn’t reached 900 yards in a year since that season, mostly because of injuries. Kupp has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, playing in every game of the season just two times in eight seasons.
Healthy, Kupp is an excellent route-runner and his connection with Stafford is undeniable. Gilmore is quietly getting his job done, except for a worse game against the Lions. Going against a receiver that doesn’t threaten vertically as much as Kupp should help the veteran CB when covering him. Brian Flores isn’t calling much man defense so it’ll be interesting to see how he deals with Kupp returning.
Justin Jefferson vs. Rams’ Secondary
The player breaking almost every receiving record to start a career has only one game with 100+ yards, and it was in the game that he had a 97-yard touchdown. He has been getting close though, with at least 81 yards in every game since Week 2. But one aspect in which Jefferson is better in 2024 is scoring. His only year with double-digit touchdowns was 2021, but the superstar has five in six games this year, putting him in range of breaking this streak.
The Rams’ secondary isn’t particularly good, with their starting CBs being Cobie Durant and Josh Wallace. How defensive coordinator Chris Shula decides to cover him will determine quite a lot. Jefferson is looking for that big game we’re all used to seeing. If Darnold has time to find him, you know #18 will be open no matter what.
Christian Darrisaw & Brian O’Neill vs. Jared Verse
Christian Darrisaw is as elite as it gets. He consistently bullies and mauls 6’3″, 250 lbs super athletes. His blocking play against the Lions, in which he shoves the edge, turns around, and picks up the looping defensive tackle, is a thing of beauty. I won’t say his tape is something young offensive tackles should study because you’re not supposed to turn your back to the defender ‒ unless you’re THAT good.
Brian O’Neill isn’t on the same level as Darrisaw, but he is still a fringe tier-one right tackle. Besides that, he is very respected not only by the offensive linemen but also by the leaders of the entire team.
Rookie Jared Verse isn’t lighting up the stats, but he’s playing at a high level. He is consistently affecting the passer and is a presence against the run as well. Between him and 2023 third-round picks Byron Young and Kobie Turner, the Rams’ defense can be a difficult matchup for the Vikings line.
Kevin O’Connell vs. Sean McVay
This isn’t necessarily a matchup because they won’t face each other at any moment of the game. Still, this is the first time Kevin O’Connell faces the man he won a Super Bowl with. You can see the amount of respect and appreciation that KOC has for Sean McVay by how he talked about his mentor during this week’s press interviews.
McVay is responsible for the most recent transformation of head coaches, being one of the first very young and very good offensive coordinators to become head coach in the last ten years. Since getting his head coaching job in 2017, five of his coordinators received head coach opportunities, most notably O’Connell and Matt LaFleur. Three other offensive coordinators were on McVay’s staff recently as well.
The Rams’ head coach is one of the most respected leaders in the entire league, and how he can keep his team in games despite the number of injuries is a testament to that. He is very good at self-scouting and changing his scheme when necessary. One example of that is how he changed his running scheme and went after the players to do so, going from a zone-blocking scheme early in his career to a power-running offense in the last two seasons.
O’Connell has learned a lot from McVay, and their schemes are similar. O’Connell likes to air it out more, even though he’s attempting to be more balanced in 2024. To him, this game will show his former HC how much he has learned since getting his own opportunity as a head coach. I’m pretty sure there will be a nice moment between the two before and/or after the game.
The statistics mentioned can be found at Pro Football Reference.
Final Prediction: Vikings 28, at Rams, 12
