Sam Darnold has earned himself a big contract this offseason. Should the Vikings be the ones to offer it?
On the one hand, Darnold has looked great in the Kevin O’Connell system, finally displaying the talent that got him drafted 3rd overall in the 2018 NFL draft.
Furthermore, the modern NFL is all about passing, and a quality QB is the key to success. There’s certainly a case to be made for a QB like Darnold, who has proven himself capable of running the Vikings’ offense, over an unproven quarterback like J.J. McCarthy, even if Darnold costs a lot more.
One possible comparison for Darnold—which has been noted by several people in recent days—is Jared Goff. Goff led the Lions to the NFC championship in 2024, signed a big extension, and has more than delivered on his contract this season. In an ideal world, Darnold could do something similar for the Vikings, establishing himself as a franchise QB for years to come.
That said, there are reasons to worry about the sustainability of Darnold’s performance in future seasons. While Darnold has been elite in some metrics (such as TD%, passer rating, and PFF grade), his QBR and EPA/play are closer to the middle of the pack among starting QBs.
More importantly, a single season is not an enormous sample size for evaluating QB play, and there is a thin line dividing a good QB from an average one. Darnold’s career passing rating is still a mediocre 84.4, and it’s hard to imagine that there won’t be some regression after an unexpectedly fantastic season.
Perhaps a more likely comparison is Geno Smith, who is still a competent QB but has nonetheless regressed after a breakout 2022 season.
Furthermore, the Vikings seem to be very happy with McCarthy, and there is always the hope that KOC can replicate his success with Darnold with either McCarthy or another bridge option like Daniel Jones. There is a world where the transition from Darnold to McCarthy follows the same path as the Chiefs’ transition from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes—Smith was very good in his last season in KC, but Mahomes has been generational.
In the real world, however, McCarthy is unlikely to be a generational talent. Bringing back Darnold would cost cap space, but the QB position is important enough that it’s worth spending on, and it’s worth having a top-tier backup QB in case of injury. If I were in charge, I would push to re-sign Darnold and remain open to the possibility of a switch to McCarthy.
That said, I’m not in charge, and I doubt that the Vikings’ front office sees things the same way I do: the decision to bring back Darnold on a multi-year contract in 2025 is just too similar to the decision to bring back Cousins in 2024, and I can’t see the Vikings’ front office changing their approach at this point.
I may disagree, but I also defer to their expertise: the Vikings’ front office has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to their handling of the QB position.
