Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings’ odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.
Have a Look at the Vikings’ Playoff Math Right Now
Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.
This is the Vikings’ probability meter after the Week 14 win over the Atlanta Falcons. All playoff math is provided by DVOA.
Miss Playoffs Altogether
0.1%
This would require a colossal collapse — Minnesota losing its next four games and either the Los Angeles Rams or Seattle Seahawks running the table.
Yeah, not happening.
Win NFC North, But Not No. 1 Seed
2.5%
In this scenario, Minnesota would catch the Lions from behind for the NFC North crown, but the Philadelphia Eagles would finish the season with the same record (or better) as Minnesota and take the No. 1 seed.
Oddsmakers basically don’t believe the Vikings can catch up to the Lions.
Clinch Homefield Advantage Throughout (No. 1 Seed)
6.2%
This is the Holy Grail plan.
Enter Week 18 with the same record as the Lions. Beat the Lions. Earn homefield advantage throughout.
If one assumes Minnesota can win its remaining four games, Detroit must lose at least one game for this one to play out.
Earn the No. 6 Seed =
25.4%
Here, Minnesota would likely lose this Monday night to the Chicago Bears, the following week at Seattle, and again at home versus the Green Bay Packers.
The cheese team would leapfrog Minnesota, seizing the No. 5 seed and leaving the Vikings to battle the Washington Commanders for sixth place in the conference.
Earn No. 5 Seed
62.1%
Minnesota has a two-game cushion on the Packers through 14 weeks, and if that lead remains, the fifth-seeded Vikings are coming to a playoff bracket near you.
This is the most logical landing spot for Kevin O’Connell’s team if one assumes Minnesota will lose just one or two more games from here on out while Green Bay does not run the table.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
